Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
