‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People line up to buy fuel canisters for household consumption in an urban center.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the vital shipping lane, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A restaurant in Chennai which has shut down due to a lack of kitchen fuel.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities states there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India sources up to a vast majority of the petroleum it uses, leaving it particularly vulnerable to interruptions in worldwide shipments.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.

Vickie Franklin
Vickie Franklin

Financial analyst specializing in precious metals with over a decade of market experience.