🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”